While Gauteng’s gross outflow of repeat home buyers to other provinces stood at 16% in 2016, it only attracted 6.9% of incoming repeat home buyers from other regions. This means its net outflow of repeat home buyers was 9.1% – up significantly from 2.9% in 2015.
This is according to John Loos, FNB’s household and residential property sector, who said Gauteng’s overall skills attraction and retention situation is not as bad as the repeat home buyer migration estimates may appear.
“Our reasoning is that we believe that a significant portion of departures of repeat buyers from Gauteng are for non-work related reasons (retirement and lifestyle),” he said, citing the FNB Estate Agent Survey which normally points to a significantly lower percentage of Gauteng departees doing so for work-related purposes, as opposed to other major regions. “This suggests that Gauteng may lose less active skilled labour than may meet the eye.”
Gauteng, however, benefits more from inward migration of aspirant first-time buyers in the early stages of their working life, than do the smaller provinces, due to it still being the largest provincial economy and thus the major place of economic opportunity for new labour market entrants.
The Western Cape remains is the most popular destination for Gauteng semigrants, with 56.2% of its outbound repeat home buyers heading to that province in 2016.
“Of the big four provinces, the other one whose semigrants favour the Western Cape are those from the Eastern Cape, with 53.6% of that province’s outbound repeat home buyers heading for the Western Cape,” said Loos. “KwaZulu-Natal, however, saw 46.64% of its outbound repeat buyers heading for Gauteng in 2016, with 34.77% of its outbound repeat buyers heading for the Western Cape.
“For outbound repeat home buyers from the Western Cape, Gauteng remains the most popular destination, with 45.88% of this group headed there in 2016, followed by 21.82% headed to the Eastern Cape.
* For the purpose of this study, FNB identifies all purchases by individuals where there is a corresponding sale by the same individual within a period of six months prior to their purchase (some who relocate may purchase a new home in advance of the sale of their old one), to up to 18 months after that purchase. It is not an exact science, as some holiday property buying may slip through, while aspirant first-time buyers who have relocated do not get included into this figure.