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Three times more 1st time buyers in Gauteng than Cape Town

Greenstone Crest in the high-growth node of eastern  Johannesburg.

The Western Cape is better at attracting the older repeat buyer skilled population while Gauteng is a better draw card for younger skills who become first-time home buyers.

This is the highly plausible assumption made by John Loos, FNB’s household sector strategist, using provincial outmigration and semigration trends to pinpoint first-time buyer migration patterns.

“Whereas the somewhat expensive Cape Town housing market attracted relatively few first-time home buyers in H2 2016, to the tune of an estimated 10% of total buying, Joburg and Tshwane were major first-time buyer draw cards to the tune of 22% and 28% of total buying, respectively,” said Loos.

Studying selling trends in the major urban regions, FNB’s estate agent surveys reveal little to choose between the largest metro regions in terms of emigration levels.

“Using a two-quarter average for the final two quarters of 2016, we see Greater Joburg (5.3%), Tshwane (5.4%) and Cape Town (5.5%) at almost identical estimated levels, while Ethekwini on 4.7% is also not too different,” said Loos. “The Nelson Mandela Bay region, however, shows a noticeably higher 7.2% emigration-related selling estimate, which may point to that region’s economy having performed more poorly than the larger metro regions.”

Semigration to and from regions can prove a useful indicator of a region’s economic performance as well as longer term confidence, with 2016 experiencing 10% of sales falling within the semigration camp.

As has been reported before, the Western Cape region is the overwhelming destination, while it is best at retaining its population.

“Examining semigration-related selling by major urban region for the final two quarters of 2016, we also see a noticeably low estimate of sellers selling in order to relocate away from the City of Cape Town Metro Region (3%),” said Loos. “On the other hand, the Nelson Mandela Bay region has the highest estimate of sellers selling in order to relocate to another SA region (17.7%), according to the sample of agents surveyed in that region. Most of these sellers are believed to be headed towards the Western Cape.”

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